Sequestration and the GOP's Double Bind -a self inflicted wound

Taxes, Debt and the GOPs Double Bind.

No matter what they do regarding the Sequestration process, the Republican Party is screwed.  Their dilemma represents a form of double-bind.  In fact, theirs may even be a triple-bind.   And it never had to happen.

The binds:  1) if they give in and raise taxes, their voters will be angry; 2) if they cut expenses, the economy will only get worse, so most of their voters will still end up dissatisfied (the rich ones will not be).  The possible third bind is with the voters who don’t vote for the GOP.  These voters are now in the majority – and demographic trends suggest things will only get worse.  The GOP’s bad behavior, both in 2011 and now is only turning off voters even more.

Do you think I am wrong when I suggest that Republicans brought about this crisis?  Sorry, Sequestration was not an Obama plan - even if the plan came from the White House.   Remember, the Republican House held a virtual gun to Obama’s head in 2011 over the debt ceiling, so Sequestration came about not as good policy, but only as a Hail Mary pass thrown in desperation. 

The three Dilemmas

We can all agree that #1 is true, that, yes, Republican voters would be angry (to differing degrees) if Republicans agreed to raise taxes either directly, or by reducing deductions.

How about #2, isn’t that just my opinion?  No, many economists (including Paul Krugman) suggest that now is not the time for spending cuts – even if needed, they ought to wait for a fuller recovery.  But even more interesting is that since 2008, Europe has run an experiment with austerity.  And lo and behold, cutting government spending does not improve a stagnant economy.  The strongest states have remained stagnant, but the weaker ones (Ireland, Portugal, Spain) have gotten worse.

Then there is the third problem – that Republicans’ actions only make things worse with the average voter – especially the voters who do not regularly vote Republican. The smart thing to do would be to try to sway voters in the middle,  but the GOP’s  actions are only driving the rest of us farther away. 

It didn’t have to be this way. 

As late as the Reagan era, moderate Republicans were an important subset of the Republican caucus.  Even Ronald Reagan was able to respond honestly when confronted with facts.  For example, though he initially cut taxes, he raised them a but when the budget deficit began to spiral upward (primarily on defense spending).  And by the end of Reagan’s two terms, only a few extremists accepted the notion that tax cuts by themselves were “pro-growth.”  Sadly, by 1996, the Dole campaign accepted the nonsensical flat tax, since then it’s been madness. 

What about the debt

In the old days conservatives always wanted us to spend less; in essence, theirs was a plea for thrift, and such pleas were worth hearing.  At some point in the early 1960s Republican Senator Everett Dirksen said at a news conference, “a billion here, a billion then and pretty soon you are talking about real money.”  The quote may be apocryphal, but I swear I heard it on the evening news.  Yet by the 1980s, Republicans were far less worried about the debt than they should have been – and debt exploded under Reagan.  Then under Bush II they manufactured deficits* and then ignored them.  As soon as Obama took office, right wing groups (funded partly with money from folks like the Koch brothers) immediately complained about the debt.  Oh, the watermelon jokes also began to appear.

Perhaps if Republican acknowledged their disingenuousness on deficits and debt, the rest of us could consider their arguments.

So what now? 

On a host of issues, from Climate Change, to Gay Marriage, to Immigration and Gun Control, to Taxes and Debt, Republicans crafted a positions designed much more for securing voters and campaign cash, and less to improve life for America and Americans.  Om top of that, allied with Fox News (not an independent arbiter) and right wing radio, they have managed to convince white working class voters that their positions on taxes and debt will help all of us.  These won’t, but their base of  mediocre minds believe this will.

So for the rest of us, we need to wait it out – see if sense returns to the Republican fantasy land.  If not, we will continue to vote for Democrats, even as we pine for better alternatives. 

*Yes, the Bush tax cuts did create deficits.  The problem they were meant to solve was a growing surplus, so they were designed to reduce revenue – and they worked.  Right wing economist have crafted a counter narrative that suggests that the tax cuts increased revenues.  Not being an expert, nor having the time to go over the data, I am at very least skeptical.  And bottom line, we start with a potential surplus, lower tax rates and end with debt.  Seems pretty clear. 

PS:  the watermelon jokes.  Maybe the tea partiers are not racist.  But if not, then why do we continue to see the following: